Who is afraid of the Web?

Last week, I concluded my post about piracy by rejecting some of the blame on the studios’ management teams, who despite their impressive online marketing campaigns are more than reluctant to actually show their films on this medium.

Everyone agrees that the future of the industry will be in online distribution and day-and-date releases (Theatrical, DVD, internet). Yet each industry member waits for the other guy to dip in the online waters, just to see if he survives. 3 things can explain that phenomenon.

1. Fear of theater owners

Their position is unambiguous. If you violate their window of exclusivity (4 months in most countries) for new films, you can say goodbye to your relationship with them. Also, until further notice, there is no better way to make huge amounts of money in little time besides theaters (ask James Cameron and Fox if you don’t believe me). To make theatrical releases even more critical, many ancillary revenues (free and pay TV, airplanes, hotels) are usually based on a percentage of box-office revenues. So, until they willingly accept to be more flexible regarding the window of exclusivity (translation: never), tomorrow is not the day you will see studio films have day-and-date releases.

2. Fear of change

Every studio executive agrees that it would be great to distribute a film simultaneously around the world at a considerably lower cost. But until you show them an Excel spreadsheet guaranteeing gross revenues similar to those they receive in the current system, they will prefer to remain the victims of piracy and complain to their government about it. After all, Avatar (the most pirated film in the world, despite the 3D factor) used the old system and did very well for itself, thank you. In addition, if the logical response to relatively lower income (combined to more than proportionally lower costs) is to decrease film budgets and studios operating expenses, who is telling Will Smith, Angelina Jolie, Amy Pascal and Tom Rothman (CEO of Sony and Fox, respectively) that they need to reduce their salaries by a few millions of dollars or use the company’s private jet company less frequently? Because I'm certainly not.

3. Fear of spectators

All that money Netflix and Amazon are making- with films released several months ago - is great. Great as well are those polls saying that "real people" (a group I'm apparently not a part of, as I've never been polled for anything) want more legal access to movies. But like St. Thomas, everyone wants to see several films released directly online and enjoy financial success before believing it. There is no guarantee after all that once a quality copy is available on a torrent, "real people", as full of good intentions as they may be, will not be tempted to enjoy “free” entertainment. There is no guarantee either that torrents’ fanatics will accept to pay to see what they used to steal not so long ago.

This reluctance to embrace online distribution can be summed up by one word: FEAR. People whose careers (and especially lifestyles) come from a particular system will only accept change with a gun to their heads (example: music, automobiles). Fortunately, change will (inevitably) come from "outsiders who will have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Don’t say I didn’t tell you so when it happens.